Rise of the Russian Kleptocrat Warlords?
The Law of Unintended Consequences
“So how is the next Substack article coming?” Dr G. asked. “It’s been a year.”
“Well, just over three months,” I replied.
“Feels like a year, just like every conversation we’ve ever had. What’s taking you so long?”
“I’m distracted,” I explained.
“By what?”
“I had a stroke.”
“You didn’t have a fucking stroke,” he snapped.
“Well, it felt like a stroke,” I responded.
“You had a bout of extended intermittent Benign Paroxysmal Positional Vertigo that got progressively more acute. You fell down. You called me. I prescribed Meclizine, three days of bed rest and now you’re fine.”
“How do you know I’m fine?” I asked.
“Because I’m a good doctor. And you’re back to your old self. Boring. Whiny. Boring.”
“Fuck you. You’re an asshole.”
“An employed asshole. An asshole with multiple degrees who saves lives and eases suffering. You drank your way out of college and squandered your genius I.Q. Because you lack focus and make excuses. Like, ‘I had a stroke.’”
“I can focus,” I replied.
“So, you’re focusing on Karentology Part II.”
“Um…”
I could hear Dr G sigh. “Okay, so what are you focusing on?”
“Warlords.”
“Call me if you fall down again.”
Dr G. hung up. Fuck him. And fuck Karentology Part II. I’ll get there. Eventually. Maybe. Fuck. In the meantime, the whole war in Ukraine has me distracted.
So now let’s talk about China from 1916-49.
Yeah, I know. Bear with me.
China 1916-28; The Warlord Era. I could bore you with paragraphs detailing the origins of said era having its roots in the Taiping Rebellion (1850-64) and the decentralization of power to local authorities forever weakening the Qing Dynasty, then launch into a dissertation on the actual birth of the era following the revolution of 1912, commencing with the death of shadow dictator Yuan Shikai in 1916 and the ensuing struggle between the competing power centers located in Beijing and the other in Guanzhou. I could finish with a flourish, explaining how Chiang Kai Shek’s Northern Expedition in 1928 long considered the end of the Warlord Era was actually only the beginning of the end, the actual end coinciding with Mao’s consolidation of power in 1949 following the Chinese Civil War.
But I don’t want to bore you so I’ll be brief.
The Qing dynasty’s main standing armies were wiped out in the early years of the Taiping rebellion. The emperor had to outsource the raising of armies to governors of distant provinces. After the rebellion’s defeat the governors kept their armies and the Qing, bankrupt, with an army hollowed out by 14 years of fighting, never regained control of the vast majority of China. The weakened monarchy eventually fell. This was the unintended consequence of outsourcing power to the provinces in China.
Now fast forward to 2022-23.
Putin’s standing armies, riven with corruption, have been hollowed out by the war in Ukraine. In order to keep the war going Putin tasked the African warlord, Prigozhin, with deploying his Wagner PMC in Ukraine. Prigozhin gained a pyrrhic victory in Bakhmut and, emboldened by his popularity, marched on Moscow. Putin bought Prigozhin off and allowed him to live to save his own skin. Putin now looks weak to the elites in his country, his military and the rest of the world. This was the unintended consequence of giving so much power to Prigozhin.
This is just one of the many falling dominoes of unintended consequences Putin suffers.
Many of the kleptocrats in Russia, following Prigozhin’s example, are forming their own private “security” companies. Although they have declared their undying loyalty to Putin, they are arming their own personal fiefdoms for whatever may happen in the future. The Rosgvardiya, the Russian National Guard, is receiving heavy weapons for the first time in its history. Soon it will be well enough armed to take on the Russian MOD or even Prigozhin. The Chechen warlord, Kadyrov, has his own army and his own priorities. Lukashenko, the president of Belarus, has already stepped up to broker a deal between Putin and Prigozhin, raising his profile, and he too commands an army. All these competing centers of power can only serve to destabilize Russia and Putin’s position.
Now let’s look to a probable future of unintended consequences.
The governors of the far-flung provinces of Russia, sitting on massive reserves of trillions of dollars of natural resources, especially in the east and southeast, could further destabilize the situation. Instead of sending the spoils to Moscow and St Petersburg what happens when these impoverished areas, recognizing Putin’s weakness, decide to sell them to China or South Korea and keep the proceeds? How does Putin control these parts of his empire when he has no army left to deploy? He will be akin to the last emperor of the Qing dynasty, destined to fall.
What happens when Putin falls? Russia disintegrates. Provinces declare independence. Fighting over natural resources explodes and the Russian War Lord Era commences. Only these war lords will have control over thousands of nuclear weapons. Overnight the number of nuclear armed nations could double, even triple.
Damn, that’s frightening.
Rereading this I realize I haven’t discussed NATO expansion, sanctions and their devastating effects, the brain drain of the intellectual elite, destabilization of countries on their borders (Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan) the proliferation of the mafia state, demographic collapse, deterioration of the petroleum industry infrastructure, Russia’s national addiction to vodka, or a whole boatload of other unintended consequences of Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine. Let’s not even think about the 1500 gigatons of carbon trapped in the Siberian tundra that if released will destroy the planet.
Now I’m even more frightened.
Maybe I should have stuck with writing Karentology Part II. Heavy sigh.
Oh, look! It’s a beautiful day outside. I should take a walk.
I’m not distracted, just taking a break.
Fuck you, Dr. G.
Thanks for reading Courtney Suttle! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.